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Thursday evening Tropics check (09/29/2016)

Matthew satellite image (3pm 09/29/2016)
Posted

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- The main area of concern in the Atlantic basin is the current Hurricane Matthew in the eastern Caribbean Sea.  A modest amount of upper-level winds is not effective in preventing strengthening, as Matthew reached Category 1 level Thursday afternoon.  Path projections show Matthew making a turn to the north, possibly into Greater Antilles islands around Cuba and Hispaniola, and then farther north in the western Atlantic near the Bahamas.  

There are fewer indications of forecast tracks into the Gulf, mainly because of the presence of an upper low that would aid in Matthew's northerly movement.  This would lessen the chances of the hurricane having direct impacts in the Big Bend region.  If the west Atlantic track verifies, local impacts would include chances for eastern showers, or, more likely, an infusion of drier air triggered by northerly winds here.

The margin of error in extended forecasts is still rather large, but the latest trends favor Matthew moving parallel to the east coast of Florida early next week.

Two other waves of moisture are present in the southern reaches of the North Atlantic, but neither show immediate signs of organization or intensification through the next couple of days.