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Thursday evening Tropics check (10/09/2014)

Atlantic disturbance satellite image (10/09/2014)
Posted at 4:31 PM, Oct 09, 2014
and last updated 2014-10-09 16:31:00-04

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- A disturbance in the Atlantic, a few hundred miles north-northeast of Puerto Rico, remains somewhat disorganized but has maintained a ragged circulation and kept most of its available moisture, despite a patch of dryness immediately to its west.  The system is gradually moving west-northwest and is forecast to remain in open waters.  However, upper winds may slack off a bit, and the moist environment may be enough for the system to gain better organization as a tropical or subtropical system over the next few days, and the National Hurricane Center gives the wave a medium chance to encounter strengthening.

All related forecast guidance for the system keeps a track over the Atlantic and far away from any part of the U.S. mainland.

If the system does form into a subtropical or tropical storm, it will be named Fay.

Other areas of moisture stretching eastward from the original disturbance are poorly organized and encountering faster upper-level winds, and development of these areas is not expected.