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Thursday evening Tropics check (06/02/2016)

Carib sat image (06/02/2016)
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MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- Bonnie, the former tropical storm that turned into a remnant low off the coast of the Carolinas, had regained some organization, and the National Hurricane Center reclassified the system as a tropical depression Thursday.  The depression is producing periods of heavy rain near the Outer Banks.  The system will move farther offshore in the next few days, while losing its tropical characteristics in the open Atlantic.

Of higher local interest, a wave of disturbed conditions has lingered over the far southwestern Caribbean, and remains there with a broad low-pressure circulation.  Wind shear in the region, caused by faster upper-level wind flow, remains moderately brisk, which should lessen immediate concerns for development.  However, indications point to the moisture source and the ragged low moving northwest to north into the Yucatan Channel and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  Shear is forecast to decrease, while the low tracks over warmer waters in that region. 

Modeling is still less than precise this far out, but chances are slightly elevated for the system to acquire further organization into a tropical low early next week in the eastern Gulf.  Regardless of future development, periods of heavy rain are expected between Sunday and Tuesday in the Florida peninsula.

If the system were to become a tropical storm, its name would be Colin.