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Sunday Evening Tropics Check (08/25/2013)

Western Caribbean disturbance satellite image (11/05/2015)
Posted at 3:59 PM, Aug 25, 2013
and last updated 2014-05-02 08:24:05-04

Well the tropics are beginning to wake up as we head into the most active month on average, September. For now the Atlantic Basin looks fairly quiet due to a lot of dry air and shear the is dominating the region. This in turn limits the development of any system. However, this may soon change as a new disturbance is coming off the coast of Africa with some models having it overcome this dry air and eventually developing into a tropical system by the middle of the week. Either way, this system is thousands of miles from the United States and does not a pose a threat for at least 2 weeks. If we move our attention to the Gulf of Mexico though, there is a system on the west side of the Yucatan Peninsula that actually has a 70% chance of development in the next 24-48 hours. I suspect that later today, Sunday, this will be upgraded to a tropical depression. Movement for this system looks to be westward in nature, causing concern for the coast of Mexico, but none for the United States. As always you can get the latest tropical updates here from Storm Team 27.