MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- A better-defined low-pressure center has emerged from the mass of cloudiness and moisture north of the Bahamas Thursday, bolstering beliefs that the disturbance may be able to gain further strength in the western Atlantic.
The disturbance is embedded amid a wide swath of moisture stretching from eastern Cuba to Bermuda. The upper-level winds remains rather fast in this zone, but forecast data suggest the upper winds slacking off through the next couple of days.
The low will move to the northwest, into a generally drier portion of the atmosphere in the western Atlantic. The lack of moisture will slow any efforts for the system to further organize. However, lighter upper winds and marginally warm ocean water temperatures near the Gulf Stream may lead to a sustaining trend of gradual strengthening of the low into the Memorial Day weekend.
High pressure to the north of the system should keep the low on a northwest track, mainly toward the Georgia or Carolinas coastal sections as a modest subtropical or tropical system.
The National Hurricane Center gauges a high chance for the low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics. Forecast track guidance suggest a continued motion to the northwest, with little variation.
An Air Force reconnaissance mission is scheduled for Friday, which will gather data and investigate how the system is developing.
Considering this scenario, local impacts from the system will be minimal and indirect. A drier, stable slot in the atmosphere would keep regional temperatures above average in the afternoon, and rain chances quite limited through Sunday.
Travelers heading to the Atlantic coast along Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas should be prepared to experienced increased swells in offshore waters and a higher rip current risk. Chances for rain and gusts associated with the system may be confined to areas near eastern Georgia and South Carolina.
