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Storm Team Sunday Evening Forecast Discussion 2/3/2013

Posted at 10:49 PM, Feb 03, 2013

 

Normal beginnings for into Monday however we are beginning to see good signs for showers and isolated thunderstorms into Tuesday. Upper level Jet deepens over the southeast increasing to between 120 mph to 180 mph as it begins to ridge over the Atlantic. Low forms within the extreme western Gulf coast and will hitch a ride on a weak shortwave that looks to drape over the Panhandle; setting up shop for a few days. Force lifting and QGC are maxing between late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday early morning giving me the indication that thunderstorms will be possible mainly within the Panhandle. We become much more zonal within 700MB-300MB by mid week which helps speed up the movement of several weather patterns that will come from the west. They don't show signs of being strong at the moment and I tend to agree with the because they are not spending enough time in one area or another to gather fuel or a lifting mechanism. Temps will rise into the low 70s I also increased lows into the upper 40s accounting for the extended cloud cover and wind speeds at the surface. By Thursday GFS shows a weak low bringing in the rain but NAM shows just a serge in moisture (weak disturbance) they do, however both agree that it will come from the southeast within the gulf. Rain chances still linger through the weekend with residual energy left behind.