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Storm Team Sunday evening Forecast Discussion (12/23/2012)

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Posted at 3:42 PM, Dec 23, 2012
and last updated 2012-12-23 10:47:16-05

 

Monday through Wednesday just became more interesting. 1800 and 1200 GFS/MOS/NAM models indicate an upper level low within the Arkleteks showing signs of rapid cyclogenesis extending a short wave trough through TX. Mid and upper level jets are oriented almost linearly over the Gulf through the next 48hrs which leads me to believe that instability will be common along the Gulf coast mainly towards our western counties. At the surface, a South flow will feed in warm/moist air into the trough. We are setting up to have a rather active Monday night into Tuesday extending through Wednesday morning. Scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two will begin Monday late afternoon/early evening. Tuesday, Thunderstorms will be common through the viewing area with a slight risk for severe thunderstorms mainly within the western Panhandle, Southeast Alabama, and Extreme Western Georgia. NWS mentions tornadic threats may be possible depending on the surface and mid level convection. I believe that watches will be set in place during this time for tornadoes and judging on the heat and the massive amount of CAPE already expressed in the sounding, I wouldn't be surprised if funnel clouds begin popping up. I increased highs tomorrow to 70 and Tuesday is keeping on track with low 70s. Cold Front will continue into Wednesday looking to pass late in the afternoon causing high temps to reach into the low and mid 60s. High pressure extends in from the Northwest keeping rain chances at bay but cloud cover will seep in Thursday and Friday due to insufficient stability and dry air. By the next weekend, another front is to move in but the models are all over the place with rain chances; ranging from 20% to 60%. Really, going off the pressure grid deepening to the west and temps in the upper 60s then dropping into the upper 50s by Sunday, Im going to go with a safe 30% for now.