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Saturday evening Tropics check (09/22/2018)

Disturbance two, 09/22/2018
Disturbance, 09/22/2018
Tropical Depression Eleven forecast cone (09/22/2018)
Tropical Depression Eleven (09/22/2018)
Tropical Storm Kirk forecast cone (09/22/2018)
Tropical Storm Kirk (09/22/2018)
Saturday evening Tropics check (09/22/2018)
Saturday evening Tropics check (09/22/2018)
Posted at 5:23 PM, Sep 22, 2018
and last updated 2018-09-22 13:43:45-04

TALLAHASSEE, FL (WTXL) -- The tropics are active once again with two disturbances, a depression, and tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Kirk is about 400 miles south of the Cape Verde Islands. Winds are sustained at 40 mph, and is moving toward the west northwest.

On the forecast track, very little strengthening is expected at Kirk moves closer to the Windward Islands. Overall, this storm is expected to continue moving mainly to the west due to a sub-tropical ridge north of it.

Tropical Depression Eleven is about 500 miles east of the Windward Islands. This disturbance is moving very slow toward the northwest, 3 mph. Winds are sustained at 30 mph, but the convection associated with this depression has decreased.

The tropical depression is forecast to become a remnant low before the weekend end as it is moving through an area of high wind shear.

About 1000 miles west southwest of the Azores is a non-tropical low pressure system. It is possible that this system could acquire tropical or sub-tropical characteristics in the coming days. A tropical cyclone may even form as this area of interest meanders over the Atlantic Ocean. There is a 70% chance of formation in the next five days. 

The last area of disturbed weather is about 200 miles south of Bermuda. There are disorganized thunderstorms associated with this low pressure, but dry air, and stronger upper level winds cloud limit formation for the rest of the weekend. As we start the next work week, conditions my be more favorable for development. At this time, there is a 40% chance of formation in the next five days.