MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- The uptick in recent tropical system activity in the Atlantic may extend into the end of the week, thanks to the presence of a persistent but relatively disorganized disturbance.
This broad low, centered a few hundred miles east of the northern Leewards island chain, has been moving generally to the west-northwest. It has been fighting to gain some organization over the last few days, but nearby dry air has been infused into the system, interrupting its intensification cycle. Upper-level winds near the disturbance have also hindered its strengthening efforts.
In the next few days, the system may be able to retain its moisture while the upper-level winds relax. If the low keeps on its present track, it will move over a patch of very warm ocean water temperatures, which may support the system becoming a tropical depression by the end of the week.
There is wide disagreement in the usual suite of computer guidance models related to strength of the system, while most mainstream models indicate an ongoing path of movement to the west-northwest. The possible track beyond the weekend is unclear at best.
Either way, a chance does exist for a tropical system to have an impact along the northern edge of the Greater Antilles through the Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas by this weekend. The National Hurricane Center projects a 60% chance of a depression forming within the next five days.
Future impacts along other Atlantic or Gulf states are highly uncertain. As more modeling is performed, and possible future Air Force reconnaissance missions are conducted, a clearer outlook may be available in the days ahead. In the meantime, there are some reasons for folks within the Southeastern United States to pay closer attention to future development related to this system.
