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Pre-season Tropical Potential for Gulf of Mexico

Forecast in Focus 7-day Rain Accumulation ECMWF (05/22/2018)
Forecast in Focus 7-day Rain Accumulation GFS (05/22/2018)
Tuesday morning Tropics check (05/22/2018)
Forecast in Focus 7-day Rain Accumulation GFS (05/22/2018)
Posted at 5:31 AM, May 22, 2018
and last updated 2018-05-22 05:31:00-04

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- The area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea has a 40% chance of developing within the next five days as it travels slowly to the northwest. 

This system is gaining attention for the potential of a tropical cyclone to impact the Gulf of Mexico, but regardless of development, this system's primary impact looks to be widespread and hefty rain totals.

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Here is what the GFS model shows with rainfall potential across the southeast through Memorial Day morning:

The GFS is showing RED (2.5 to 5 inches of rain) all across North Florida and South Georgia, with locally higher amounts possible.

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Here is what the ECMWF model shows with rainfall potential across the southeast through Memorial Day morning:

The ECMWF is similar. It is showing RED (2.5 to 5 inches of rain) all across North Florida and South Georgia, with locally higher amounts possible.

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Regardless of what happens, the First Alert Weather Team is eyeing the system closely and we recommend that you stay tuned to any changes in the forecast. Make sure you download the "WTXL First Alert Weather" App for the latest information on your local forecast.