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Monday evening Tropics check (11/14/2016)

southwest caribbean satellite image (3:30pm 11/14/2016)
Posted at 4:20 PM, Nov 14, 2016
and last updated 2016-11-14 15:40:03-05

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- A disorganized wave of moisture in the far southwestern Caribbean is in an environment of weak upper-level winds and relatively warm water temperatures.  These conditions will support falling air pressures in this region, which may lead to additional tropical cyclone formation efforts through this week.  While development is not forecast to be rapid, a better-formed system is possible in this region, with a medium risk assessment issued by the National Hurricane Center.

While some development is possible, current indicators show a possible future movement to the north or northeast.  If the recent trends of frequent cold frontal passages continues through the next few days, this pattern would force a developing tropical system to the northeast, and possibly away from the Gulf region.  

Since forecast data can and does change in the extended outlook, the system does deserve continued monitoring through the rest of the week for possible shifts in trends and observations.