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Monday evening tropical weather discussion (05/04/2015)

Atlantic disturbance satellite image (05/04/2015)
Posted at 3:14 PM, May 04, 2015
and last updated 2015-05-04 15:14:00-04

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- A broad low-pressure disturbance stretches from western Cuba, through part of the Florida Straits, and into the southeastern Bahamas Monday afternoon.  The system is being heavily impacted by swift upper-level winds which are helping to keep disorganized cloudiness in place, along with numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western half of Cuba.

Forecast data indicate this system gradually moving to the north or northeast over the next 24 hours.  As the upper flow weakens a bit, the disturbance has a chance to move over the narrow corridor or warmer waters associated with the Gulf Stream off the Florida east coast.

There is a slight chance that the combination of slower upper winds and the existence of the warmer patch of waters that the system may further organize and developing into a subtropical low over the next couple of days.

Future tracking shows this system moving generally to the north, then perhaps slowing down in forward progress later this week near the coast of the Carolinas.

There will be limited local impact from this system, no matter what form it takes.  Northerly winds will be maintained for most of the local region, with only an isolated chance for showers along and east of Interstate 75 around midweek.

Numerous uncertainties remain in terms of eventual development and form of the system, but indications are fairly consistent that this system will likely remain well east of the Big Bend and southern Georgia through the rest of this work week.