First To Know Weather


Monday afternoon Tropics check (09/21/2015)

Joaquin forecast track (11am 10/05/2015)
Posted at 4:47 PM, Sep 21, 2015
and last updated 2015-09-21 16:47:00-04

MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- The main active feature in the tropics is Tropical Storm Ida.  Its nearest land mass is the Leeward Islands, but Ida's center is over 900 miles from it. 

Late Monday afternoon, it has a modest 50-mph peak wind strength.  The forecast track twists and turns as the system is expected to meander and wander with little definitive forward motion.  The flow that directs the storm's forward motion is very weak; however, later this week, a gradual movement to the north-northwest is expected with limited strengthening.  Ida is near a zone of strong upper-level shear, which should keep the storm from rapidly intensifying.

Aside from some non-tropical areas of moisture in the northern Atlantic, and smaller waves of activity emerging from west Africa, there are no other systems that bear closer watching in the near-term.

Moisture associated with a front in the northern Gulf of Mexico is not likely become a tropical system.  However, its long-range chances remain low, but non-zero, as portions of the disturbance may linger by the weekend over the southern reaches of the Gulf.