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Tropical moisture set to reach prime early-season formation zone

Deep moisture over central America can influence disturbance development next week
Posted at 4:45 PM, Jun 10, 2021
and last updated 2021-06-10 16:51:49-04

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — Tropical forecast data stretching out beyond one week is usually prone to a wide margin of error, but there are times when various versions of the models try to hone in on a particular pattern.

Such is the case with a blob of moisture, straddling the landmass in the lower part of Central America.

A small low-pressure circulation has essentially faded, and its chances to grow into a stronger tropical low are zero. However, the broader area of moisture will not be quick to disappear.

Tropical systems require high amounts of moisture to begin to transform into a more organized disturbance. Over the weekend, the moisture will continue to stretch across Central America and nearby waters of the Pacific Ocean and the Caribbean Sea.

The long-range forecast models show the moisture source drifting north into early next week, reaching areas near the Yucatan Peninsula and adjacent waters.

Atmospheric moisture forecast

This location is a prime zone for mid-June tropical disturbances to take shape. Water temperatures are in the middle 80s within the Bay of Campeche and the far southwestern Gulf of Mexico.

Gulf water temperatures (06/10/2021)
Typical tropical development zones in June

Precise forecasting of the development and movement of a tropical low in this region is not dependable as of the time of this article's publication (June 10, 2021). But most longer-term guidance for the middle and end of next week have consistently indicated a disturbance moving north in this prime region of tropical system growth.

The First Alert Weather team will stay on top of pattern changes and adjustments in the days ahead to keep you aware and informed of any potential tropical lows in the Gulf of Mexico.

As always, be sure to follow the ABC 27 First Alert Weather Team on Facebook and Twitter. Be sure to download the Storm Shield App to get watches and warnings delivered straight to your phone to stay updated on your forecast through the week. Get the app today: iPhone/iPad | Android.