First Alert WeatherHurricane Center


First Alert Tropics Check: Gulf system possible next week

Tropical moisture expected to reach SW Gulf
Posted at 4:41 PM, Jun 11, 2021
and last updated 2021-06-13 17:02:18-04

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTXL) — A tropical disturbance is forecast to begin taking shape next week near the Yucatan Peninsula and the lower Gulf coast of Mexico.

A source of abundant moisture persists along Central America, stretching from the Pacific Ocean east into the western Caribbean. While no organized low-pressure system is noted Sunday, the entire region of moisture is forecast to drift generally to the north this week.

While the waters in the Bay of Campeche (the southwestern Gulf of Mexico) are well in the 80s, the upper-level wind pattern is slightly active with a steady stream of air movement high in the atmosphere.

We are also monitoring the increasing levels of airborne dust originating from the African continent, expected to spread over the Gulf region next week.

The precise forecasting of movement and development are not reliable to make at this point. But, a steady trend of deep moisture gathering around a swirl of low pressure has been observed in forecast data.

The National Hurricane Center highlights the southwestern Gulf as an area with a medium chance for a tropical cyclone to form within the next five days.

Higher coverage of rain is possible by the end of next week for states along the western and central Gulf of Mexico.

The First Alert Weather team will stay on top of pattern changes and adjustments in the days ahead to keep you aware and informed of any potential tropical lows in the Gulf of Mexico.

As always, be sure to follow the ABC 27 First Alert Weather Team on Facebook and Twitter. Be sure to download the Storm Shield App to get watches and warnings delivered straight to your phone to stay updated on your forecast through the week. Get the app today: iPhone/iPad | Android.