After an active few weeks, the tropics are finally starting to enter a slightly quieter period. The disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is encountering strong upper level winds, and is beginning to break apart. Further development into an organized system in the next few days is unlikely, with just a 30% chance of forming into a tropical depression or tropical storm. Regardless of development, the disturbance will bring heavy rains to northeast Mexico. It will not be a significant threat to the United States.
Another disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean is currently located a few hundred miles off the east coast of Florida. It is showing a little better organization this morning, but conditions are expected to become unfavorable for development in the next day or so. The National Hurricane Center has given it just a 20% chance of development in the next 5 days. It should not be a threat to land.
