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FIRST ALERT: Subtropical Depression Alberto Final Advisory

Forecast in Focus Rainfall accumulation ECMWF (05/25/2018)
Forecast in Focus Rainfall accumulation GFS (05/25/2018)
Tropics Basics (05/25/2018)
Forecast in Focus Rainfall accumulation ECMWF (05/25/2018)
Forecast in Focus Rainfall accumulation GFS (05/25/2018)
Subtropical Storm Alberto 11am Advisory & track (05/25/2018)
Flash Flood Watch (05/27/2018)
SPC Outlook (05/27/2018)
Storm Surge Watch (05/27/2018)
Tropical Storm Warning (05/28/2018)
Forecast in Focus Rainfall Accumulation ECMWF (05/27/2018)
Alberto 2:00pm EDT Advisory and Forecast track
Water Vapor Alberto, 5:00 EDT (05/27/2018)
Storm surge watch, 5:00 EDT (05/27/2018)
Tropical storm warning,  5:00 pm update (05/27/2018)
Flash Flood Watch,  5:00 pm update (05/27/2018)
Subtropical Storm Alberto, 5:00 pm update (05/27/2018)
Subtropical Storm Alberto forecast cone,  5:00 pm update (05/27/2018)
Subtropical Storm Alberto cone, 5:00 pm 05/28/2018
SPC risk, Monday night, 6:00 pm 05/28/2018
Flash flood watch, 6:00 pm 05/28/2018
Tropical Storm Warning, 6:00 pm 05/28/2018
Storm surge watch, 6:00 pm 05/28/2018
sub-TD Alberto satrad, 11 pm 05/28/2018
Sub-TD Alberto cone 11 pm 05/28/2018
FIRST ALERT: Subtropical Depression Alberto Final Advisory
Posted at 4:50 PM, May 28, 2018
and last updated 2018-05-29 04:45:31-04

UPDATE as of 8:45am EDT...

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- Alberto's final advisory from the National Hurricane Center came out at 5:00am EDT. The maximum sustained winds were measured to be 30 mph, and the storm was last measured moving NNW at 13 mph.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for western counties of the Big Bend and South Georgia as heavy rains SE of the center of Alberto may cause flooding in these areas...


UPDATE as of 10:50pm EDT...

TALLAHASSEE, Fl (WTXL) -- Alberto has weakened to a subtropical depression with sustained winds of 35 mph. This storm is moving north at 12 mph and is expected to become a remnant low by Tuesday evening.

A flash flood watch remains in effect for the same western areas as earlier. The storm surge watch, tropical storm warning, and severe weather risk for Tuesday night are no longer in place.

Scattered rain, non-severe thunderstorms, and gusty winds remain on hand through the night.


UPDATE as of 5:50pm EDT...

TALLAHASSEE, Fl (WTXL) --  As Subtropical Storm Alberto pushes northward, our watches and warnings are slowly being canceled.

A storm surge watch remains in effect for coastal Jefferson, Wakulla, and Franklin counties.

A tropical storm warning is still in effect for Coastal Jefferson and Wakulla counties, as well as all of Franklin.

A flash flood watch is still in effect for our western-most counties.

There is still a chance that some storms could become severe overnight tonight through early morning hours of Tuesday.


UPDATE as of 4:50pm EDT...

TALLAHASSEE, Fl (WTXL) -- Subtropical Storm Alberto has made landfall near Laguna Beach with sustained winds of 40 mph, and extend 90 miles from the center of rotation. Heavy rain is still being felt throughout the Florida panhandle and into south Georgia and Alabama. The storm will continue moving northwestward at 9 mph. Alberto is forecast to quickly weaken and become a depression tonight or tomorrow morning.


UPDATE as of 1:50pm EDT...

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- The 2:00pm EDT Advisory for Subtropical Storm Alberto is up.

The latest advisory has Alberto with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph. The storm is moving due north at 8 mph. It is located 30 miles SSW of Panama City Beach. Landfall is expected in a few hours.

Warnings and watches associated with the storm remain unchanged. Some areas, however, may notice some breaks of sun between the clouds. Rain is still possible later today, though...

The next full advisory comes in at 5:00pm EDT.


UPDATE as of 11:45am EDT...

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) - A tropical storm warning for areas west of the Florida - Alabama boarder has been cancelled.

Subtropical Storm Alberto is about 46 miles off the coast of Panama City.

Although the storm has weakened slightly, the 11 a.m. advisory has no changes in local Tropical Storm Warnings.

The center of Alberto is moving north at about 8 mph and a north-north west motion is expected over the next few days.

Landfall is expected along the Florida Panhandle early this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.

The NWS says brief tornadoes are possible in North Florida and South Georgia for Monday.


UPDATE as of 9:30am EDT...

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- The 8:00am advisory features no changes in local watches/warnings/advisories along the Big Bend and South Georgia.

Maximum winds are still sustained at 65 mph and the storm is moving north at 6 mph.

As the cyclone moves toward the Panhandle, rain will still rotate in from the south and east and all of the viewing area may encounter some of this rain. Highest rainfall accumulations look to be over extreme western parts of the Big Bend where 2-5 inches is expected. This can lead to flash flooding.

An earlier tornado warning over parts of Liberty and Gadsden counties supports the potential of tornadoes forming with outside bands of rain associated with Subtropical Storm Alberto.

Next advisory at 11:00am EDT.


UPDATE as of 3:45am EDT...

MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- The 2:00am advisory features no changes in local watches/warnings/advisories along the Big Bend and South Georgia.

Regarding Alberto's characteristics, the storm is still "Subtropical" with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph. It is moving NW at 9 mph. The storm is expected to make landfall in the western sections of the Florida Panhandle later Monday as a strong tropical/subtropical storm. 

While dry air has impeded the rain coverage for some of us over Sunday, the highest rain threat remains for far western counties in the Big Bend where flash flooding is still a concern (along with Tropical Storm force winds and gusts). 

The overall rain threat for the entire local area is elevated for Memorial Day, but the highest rain totals will be focused along the Western Big Bend. For more specifics on impacts, see the previous updates below...


MIDWAY, FL (WTXL) -- Over the course of the last several hours, there has been very little change in the overall forecast of Subtropical Storm Alberto, and the warnings, watches and advisories for the area.

As of 11 pm on Sunday, this storm is about 90 miles south southwest of Apalachicola with sustained winds of 65 mph. Alberto has slowed down a bit...it's now moving at 9 mph in a northwestward direction. Landfall is still expected around Destin Monday afternoon with the windiest and wettest weather occurring in the western half of the area.


MIDWAY, FL (WTXL) -- In the last few hours, Subtropical Storm Alberto has gained a little strength and slowed down just a bit. Winds are now sustained at 65 mph with stronger gusts. The storm is now moving northwest at 10 mph with an expected landfall near Destin around Monday afternoon.

This storm is sitting about 100 miles southwest of Apalachicola with tropical storm force winds extending 115 miles from the center of rotation.

Although the winds have strengthened, our Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Watch, and Flash Flood Watch remain unchanged. Our rainfall totals, and overall forecast are also the same.


MIDWAY, FL (WTXL) -- At the 5:00 pm EDT update, Subtropical Storm Alberto has started moving in a north northwest motion at about 12 mph. During the Sunday night, Alberto is expected to slow even more. By midday Monday, this storm should be getting ready move onshore by Destin.

At the current hour, the center of rotation looks to be about 150 miles south of Apalachicola, with tropical storm force winds extending about 115 miles from the center.

The biggest threats with Alberto are heavy rain, and gusty winds. The heavy rain still has potential to cause flooding throughout much of the area.

In addition, strong winds are expected for most of the coastal Big Bend, as well as some of our far western counties. This is the reason behind the tropical storm warning that has been issued.

In addition, strong winds are expected for most of the coastal Big Bend, as well as some of our far western counties. This is the reason behind the tropical storm warning that has been issued.

A storm surge warning is also in effect for the coastal Big Bend. 

Rain totals for the storm remain the same as our previous update, but in the last few hours, more dry air has entered into Subtropical Storm Alberto. It's this dry air that will impact the storm the most. If enough dry air is sucked into the storm, it could help limit the amount of rain we see locally. (This would not completely knock off our rain and thunderstorm chances.)

If more convection is able to regenerate tonight, then Alberto could maintain its strength just a bit longer, and be slower to weaken. 


MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) -- Subtropical Storm Alberto has sustained winds of 50 mph and as of the 2:00pm EDT advisory, the system is still pushing due north.

Alberto is now moving north at about 14 mph and is expected to begin turning north-northwest later Sunday night.  

The center of the storm is expected to cross the eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico today and approach the northern Gulf Coast tonight or Monday.

From the beginning of tracking Alberto, the local impacts have continued to include heavy rains with flash flooding as the primary concern. But thanks to the storm's easterly shift earlier, there are some new items to focus on...

First, TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS are now ALL along the Big Bend coastline. This means that TROPICAL STORM winds of 39 mph or greater can be expected in this area within the next 36 hours. While the warnings are only in place for coastal sections of the Big Bend of Florida, all of FRANKLIN COUNTY and LIBERTY COUNTY are under the warning.

A STORM SURGE WATCH remains in effect as well for the potential of surge of up to 2-4 feet along the Big Bend coastline. This means the water level may rise 2-4 feet above ground. 

HIGH SURF WARNINGS and HIGH rip current hazards are in place as the storm will make marine conditions dangerous.

There is also a threat for isolated TORNADOES as the system gets closer, due to low level shear increasing in the atmosphere. This allows the air to turn with height, which can cause rotating storms. This threat is MARGINAL, but it is in place for all of the Big Bend and South Georgia. Have a way to receive warnings today and tomorrow.

Of course, the rain threat is still a big concern. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect through Tuesday morning to account for the expected accumulation of 4-8 inches (possible higher) for counties west of a line from Taylor County, Florida to Miller County, Georgia.


MIDWAY, Fl. (WTXL) - The National Weather Service Prediction Center is forecasting a moderate risk for flash flooding from Alberto.

As of 5 a.m., Alberto has shifted east but impacts are expected to remain the same. The NWS predicts a moderate risk of flash flooding from Alberto across southeastern Florida on Sunday and across extreme southwestern Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. 

Tropical storm warnings have been extended to include the entire Big Bend coast as well as inland portions of the Florida Panhandle.  

Heavy rain and flooding will be the greatest threat in our area. Other threats include coastal flooding and isolated tornadoes. 


MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) - The ragged form of Subtropical Storm Alberto was still evident late Friday afternoon, but anticipation for some strengthening over the Memorial Day weekend continues.

The center of the poorly organized system was situated a short distance off the east shore of the Yucatan Peninsula, moving slowly east at 2 mph. 

Advisories and watches related to Alberto include a Tropical Storm Watch for coastal and offshore waters near Franklin County, and then for the coastline from Indian Pass west through the Emerald Coast and beyond.

The Big Bend coast, including Indian Pass east to Horseshoe Beach, is under a Storm Surge Watch. This means water levels may increase two to four feet in response to the onshore winds Alberto is expected to produce, peaking on Sunday.

Fast upper-level winds are causing most of the moisture and cloud development on the eastern side of the circulation, interfering intensification efforts.  Massive amounts of dry air are associated with the upper wind pattern, further stalling its organization.

Despite the forces involved in slowing strengthening processes, Alberto is expected to help produce waves of heavy rain which will likely lash out at the western Florida peninsula, some parts of the Big Bend region, and the Panhandle through Monday evening.

Alberto will also produce steady winds over the Gulf and nearby offshore waters that will roughen the seas levels. The expected southeast wind flow will trigger an increase in coastal water levels, especially at high-tide times.

Rain accumulations around the state line region have not changed drastically from previous expectations.  First Alert Weather expects, on average, two to five inches of rainfall through Tuesday, with some higher totals possible near the coast and west of the Apalachicola River.

Gov. Rick Scott has also declared a state of emergency ahead of inclement weather. Read more here


MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) - Subtropical Storm Alberto has become the first named storm of the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season. For the fourth consecutive time, Hurricane Season will start with a name already checked off before June 1st...

According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm watches are currently in affect for parts of Mexico and Cuba.

A general slow motion toward the north is expected through the weekend, followed by a northwest turn by Monday.

Alberto is expected to pass near the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula Friday night. The storm will be near the western tip of Cuba Saturday morning and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night.

The storm will approach the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday.

Rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible across the Florida Keys and southern and southwestern Florida. Heavy rain will likely begin to affect the central Gulf Coast region and the southeastern United States later this weekend and continue into early next week.

Flooding potential will increase across the southeast early next week as Alberto is forecast to slow down after it moves inland.

HERE'S WHAT TO EXPECT LOCALLY:

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: Scattered thunderstorms well away from Alberto are possible in the afternoons. 1-2 total inches of rain are possible through these days, which can add to the high totals we've seen over the last week and a half.

SUNDAY INTO MEMORIAL DAY: Timing is still a bit in question, but heavier rainfall with higher totals are likely with projected totals of 3 to 5 inches expected. Locally HIGHER amounts are possible. This will increase the potential for FLASH FLOODING so make sure you have a way to receive warnings in case they occur and AVOID DRIVING ON FLOODED ROADWAYS. River flooding is possible, along with coastal flooding and inland rainwater flooding.

The City of Tallahassee and Leon County are also opening up sandbag locations ahead of this weekend's inclement weather. 

Beginning at noon Friday, May 25, sandbags will be available to the public at these locations:

  • Tekesta Park, at Tekesta Drive and Deer Lake Road in Killearn Lakes (county)
  • Apalachee Regional Park (Solid Waste Management Facility), 7550 Apalachee Parkway (county)
  • J. Lee Vause, 6024 Old Bainbridge Road (county)
  • At the intersection of Oak Ridge Rd at Ranchero Road (county)
  • James Messer park South, 2830 Jackson Bluff Road (city)
  • Winthrop Park, 1601 Mitchell Avenue (city) 

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