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Erika Forecast Track Brings System Closer to Florida

Erika Forecast Track Brings System Closer to Florida
Posted at 5:49 AM, Aug 26, 2015
and last updated 2015-08-26 03:11:21-04

TALLAHASSEE (WTXL) - Tropical Storm Erika is more than 2,000 miles away from the local area, but its forecast track makes it worth monitoring.

Erika didn't strengthen overnight. It still has winds of 40 mph at its core and is moving to the west at 18 mph.

Tropical Storm warnings are issued for Anguilla, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Monteserrat, Antigua and Barbuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra, and the Virgin Islands.

New spaghetti computer model tracks move the system a little farther to the south, pushing it closer to the the island of Hispanola. If it does go right over that island with its high elevation, it could tear the system a part a bit more. Currently though, it still looks to stay in the open waters and push towards the Bahamas.

Once over the Bahamas, it'll utilize the warm waters as fuel and strengthen the system into a hurricane. A few computer models indicate it could be a stronger hurricane, but those are currently outliers. Right now, we're thinking Erika will be a category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Florida coast.

An approaching trough into the Deep South does have the possibility of pushing this system offshore if the Bermuda high recedes enough, but right now, it doesn't look like it'll be deep enough to impact this tropical system.

The current track targets south Florida at the center of the forecast cone of uncertainty by Monday morning, so this is definitely a system worth monitoring.

Stay tuned for further updates this afternoon.