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Bahamas Disturbance has Limited Development Chances

Bahamas tropical disturbance (4pm 05/24/2016)
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MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- On not-so-rare occasions, the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity can get a jump start, ahead of the official beginning of the hurricane season on June 1.

A suspect area of low pressure near the Bahamas Tuesday afternnoon has low-end chances for further development and strengthening over the next several days.

While the upper winds are still active in the western Atlantic, any organization efforts will be hindered.  Forecast data suggest a broad, closed-low circulation may lift to the northwest toward the end of the week, where some modest organization may occur.

Locally, this scenario would promote a drier northerly wind flow initially, with the low-pressure circulation staying a good distance east of the Big Bend region.

It is quite unclear at this early phase if the low will have the higher ability to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm.