What happens at the Supreme Court after Kennedy retires?

(RNN) – With Anthony Kennedy announcing his retirement on Wednesday, President Donald Trump will get a chance to solidify his imprint on the Supreme Court just 18 months into his presidency.

But what has to happen between now and a new justice actually sitting on the Supreme Court bench? Here’s how it works:

• When will Kennedy actually leave the court?

Kennedy will step down officially at the end of next month, on July 31. After that the court will have only eight justices and an ostensible 4-4 deadlock, as it did from Feb. 2016-April 2017 after Antonin Scalia’s death.

• What happens to the Supreme Court until there’s a new justice?

In this case, probably nothing. While the eight-justice situation that lasted for more than a year produced a number of divided decisions, currently there are no more argument sessions scheduled before the court until Oct. 1.

• Would a justice be in place by Oct. 1?

Probably. Sen. Mitch McConnell, the majority leader, said on Wednesday, “We will vote to confirm Justice Kennedy’s successor this fall.” If Trump moves to make a nomination quickly, and Republicans maintain a united position, a new justice could easily be in place before Oct. 1, when the court will resume hearing arguments.

Last year, Gorsuch was formally nominated on Feb. 1 and confirmed on April 7, a span of 65 days. From Wednesday, 65 days would be Aug. 31.

• Can Democrats try to block it?

Almost certainly not. They will make the argument, as many already have, that as McConnell’s rationale for blocking President Obama’s nomination of Merrick Garland in 2016 was that the American people should get a say through an upcoming election, now the people should get a say with midterms coming up, as well.

It’s highly unlikely, however, that argument will convince any Republicans.

Otherwise, after Republicans eliminated the filibuster for Supreme Court nominations last year by invoking the so-called “nuclear option” to confirm Gorsuch, Democrats would need to convince at least two Republicans to deny Trump his nomination.

• Why do the Democrats need two Republicans to block a nomination?

There are currently 47 Democratic senators (plus two independents who generally vote with them). A 50-50 tie would be broken by Vice President Mike Pence. So they need at least a 51-49 edge to reject any Trump judicial nomination.

Of course, they would probably need even more than that, as there were three Democrats who broke rank and voted for Gorsuch last year.

And, in that vote, all 51 Republican senators voted in favor.

• So there’s not really anything the Democrats can do?

Correct.

• So whoever Trump nominates will almost certainly be confirmed, almost certainly before the midterms?

Correct.

• Who will Trump pick, then?

He said he will select someone from this list. Brett Kavanaugh, who sits on the federal appeals court for the District of Columbia and once clerked for Kennedy, is considered a frontrunner. So is Raymond Kethledge, who sits on the Sixth Circuit appeals court and also clerked for Kennedy.

There are also three judges from the list - Amul Thapar (6th Circuit), Joan Larsen (6th Circuit) and Amy Coney Barrett (7th Circuit) - that Trump himself appointed, and whom he could seek to promote.

Or Trump could go with a more renegade and overtly political pick, such as Sen. Mike Lee of Utah, the only non-judge on his shortlist. While Gorsuch is a respected conservative jurist and was largely praised by the right, his selection was seen as something of an olive branch to the GOP establishment Trump pits himself against.

It’s possible that, this time, he wants to make more of a splash.

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