(RNN) - A tropical disturbance is brushing against the coast of North and South Carolina.
However, its long-term plans call for a trip out east into the Atlantic Ocean, and forecasters aren't sure it will ever become a tropical storm named Irma.
"The chances of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a coin flip," forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said
As of the 5 a.m. advisory, the tropical disturbance was located 95 miles east-northeast of Charleston, SC, and 65 miles southwest of Wilmington, NC, moving northeast at 12 mph with maximum-sustained winds of 40 mph.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for North of Surf City to Duck, NC, Albemarle Sound and Pamlico Sound. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Surf City, NC to Little River Inlet.
The system is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain along the North Carolina and Virginia coast, reaching into the Delaware, Maryland and Virginia area by Wednesday. Forecasters also expect hazardous surf, swells and strong wind with this storm.
Forecasters said the storm is not a true tropical disturbance, as it exhibits extratropical characteristics. Wind shear is affecting its ability to organize.
It's expected to become an extratropical system in about a day and reach hurricane strength in a couple of days.
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