NewsNational Politics

Actions

Inflation slowed in April but tariffs are likely to increase prices soon, according to economists

New data suggests President Donald Trump's tariffs haven't quite caught up with current prices.
Retail Sales
Posted
and last updated

Prices rose more slowly in April, marking another month of cooling inflation.

Consumer prices rose just 0.2% from March, and they are up 2.3% from a year ago. That's the lowest annual increase since February 2021.

The new data suggests President Donald Trump's tariffs haven't quite caught up with current prices.

"We didn't see much evidence of tariffs in the numbers yet, which was concerning because it's like the tidal wave that we know is coming," said Ernie Tedeschi, director of economics at the Yale Budget Lab.

A report from the Yale Budget Lab estimates current tariffs will increase prices by 1.7% in the short run, costing the average household about $2,800 a year.

That increase wasn't apparent in the April CPI data for two reasons, according to Tedeschi.

"One, tariffs weren't in effect for all of April," Tedeschi said.

"I think the second reason is that we know from spending data and import data that businesses and consumers anticipated tariffs and bought ahead of them. Cc there had been some stockpiling going on and that probably cushioned the at least in the short run from tariffs."

RELATED STORY | Trump’s tariffs: Average American household faces $2,200 price hike, report says

Economists say consumers will likely start to see more of the impacts soon, and future data will reflect that.

"I would be genuinely surprised if we didn't see some evidence in next month's CPI report," Tedeschi said.

But Tedeschi cautions that could change as the Trump administration's tariff policies remain fluid.