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The advantages and disadvantages facing Republicans and Democrats

Both parties face obvious advantages going into Election Day
Election 2022 Polls Quick Calls Explainer
Posted at 5:00 AM, Nov 07, 2022

WASHINGTON — It's a busy week in politics with 36 gubernatorial races, 35 Senate contests and 435 House seats up for grabs across the country.

So with just a few hours left in the campaign — what advantages and disadvantages are both political parties facing?

GOP ADVANTAGES

All signs point to a historic turnout for a midterm election and all signs point to a good night for Republicans, especially in the House of Representatives.

One reason? Recent history.

Presidents tend to have rough midterm elections during their first term in office.

George Herbert Walker Bush and his Republican party didn't win in 1990.

Bill Clinton's Democrats lost big in '94.

So did the Democrats in 2010 when Obama was president.

Former President Donald Trump lost the House '18.

George W. Bush is the only recent president not to suffer a setback, but 9/11 happened and his approval rating was above 60%.

Another advantage for Republicans is the economy and inflation.

While you can debate what role Democrats actually played in creating inflation, the reality is voters in nearly every poll care about this issue more than any other.

Republicans maintain the edge in most polling when it comes to who Americans think can fix it.

DEMOCRATS STILL HAVE ADVANTAGES

However, don't count out the Democratic party, especially when it comes to control of the Senate.

Democrats have a friendlier map this cycle.

Of these nine swing states — Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Wisconsin — Democrats currently control 5 of them and all their candidates have a real shot at reelection.

If Democrats just win what they already control, they'll keep control of the Senate.

Democrats could also even flip a red state or two on election night — like Pennsylvania.

Another reason is Democrats have a slight advantage when it comes to candidate experience.

Republican Senate candidates in Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Ohio and New Hampshire are all running what experts think are solid campaigns, but not one of them has actually held elected office before.

The final advantage for Democrats — and in turn disadvantage for Republicans — is an unprecedented concern about democracy.

This is the first major federal election since the January 6th attack at the Capitol and it is still unclear if Republicans will be penalized for their alleged role on that day.

One thing is clear, the White House will have to work with whichever party controls Congress after Tuesday's election.

If Republicans take back just one political chamber it will create new political debates in this country over everything from the IRS to the border.