MIDWAY, Fla. (WTXL) -- Tropical Depression Nine is slowly moving in the southern edges of the Gulf of Mexico, fighting elements of dry air and moderate upper-level wind flow to stay intact.
The system had peak winds of 35 mph as of Monday NIGHT, moving west at 7 mph.
The central low-pressure circulation is about 240 miles west-southwest of Key West, or roughly 375 miles from the central Big Bend coast.
Considerable wind shear from the northwest has aided in shoving most of the concentrated moisture and storm development to the south and southeast side of the low. This, along with a source of slightly dry air just to the northwest of the circulation, has prevented any rapid intensification efforts.
The low is also in a zone of weak steering currents, preventing it from moving quickly in one direction or another. By midweek, a trough of low pressure, along with a cold front, will enter the Mississippi River valley. This element should begin influencing the movement of the system, which may become a tropical storm by this stage.
The trough will force the tropical system to curve sharply to the north or northeast, in the direction of the Florida Gulf Coast region.
The cone of possible forecast movement is draped over the entire northeastern Gulf, including all of Apalachee Bay and the nearby coastline. This means the center of the storm has a chance to reach these locations, perhaps as soon as Wednesday night or Thursday.
Marine areas may encounter gusty, squally conditions, with gusts over tropical storm force. Where the center of the storm makes impact at the coast will determine the magnitude of a storm surge. A landfall west of Apalachicola will enhance the coastal water levels in the entire Big Bend, while a landfall southeast of the Steinhatchee River will diminish storm surge impacts.
It is unclear precisely where the center of the storm will move, and at what strength.
A broader impact may come from heavy, soaking rain for the Florida west coast and parts of the Big Bend, again depending on the structure of the system and where the center crosses land. Rain totals of over six inches are possible for the Suncoast and Nature Coast regions of Florida. Parts of the southeast Big Bend are included in this higher rainfall projection. Suwannee River areas may also experience a few inches of rain, while slightly lesser amounts are possible in the Chattahoochee and Apalachicola river basins, given the current forecast track. A westward shift in future movement may place more of the Big Bend and southern Georgia in a heavier rain swath.
There is another depression near the coast of North Carolina. Depending on which system acquires tropical storm strength first, the Gulf depression may be named Hermine or Ian when highest sustained winds reach 39 mph.
Tropical-related advisories, watches, or warnings may be issued for parts of the local region Tuesday in advance of a potential landfall.
