TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WTL) — The National Weather Service says several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Thursday through the weekend with severe weather possible Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.
Thursday and Friday have a marginal risk for severe weather generally along and west of a line from Albany to Panama City. Main threats include gusty winds and hail.
Any heavy rainfall received Thursday and Friday will increase chances for flooding with additional rainfall on Saturday. Training of storms over the same areas will be possible.
- Isolated non-severe scattered showers possible before dawn. During the day, spotty showers and storms are expected to form and move mainly north/northeast into southern Georgia.
- Timeline: Noon to 9 p.m.
- Areas of concern: Southwestern Georgia, interior western Big Bend (roughly I-10 to the state line)
- Severe storm coverage: Isolated
- Hazards: Storm-related gusts, hail, brief tornado
On Saturday, increasing wind shear will shift the threat to include a higher potential for tornadoes particularly in the morning.
- The line of strong storms will move from the Mississippi River region this evening into southern Alabama/central Gulf coast in the morning, reaching our westernmost counties by 11:00 am. The storm line will be at its peak strength during this time frame. The line of storms will move east-southeast into our coverage counties midday through 4:00 pm. While the line will be weakening as it moves east, it will still be capable of creating (in order of highest to lower likelihood).
- Heavy rain
- Strong wind gusts (50mph widespread, 60-65+ possible in tri-state and western Big Bend)
- Frequent lightning
- Localized flooding
- A tornado or two
- The boundary will shift to the south later in the evening. Leftover showers are possible with steady rain along coastal counties in particular. Severe weather is not anticipated later in the evening and night.
- The leftover boundary in the Bay will provide some support for re-developing scattered showers and storms in the morning. Most of these will be non-severe.
- Additional rain accumulations can cause saturated ground and localized flooding. River flooding is possible into next week.
- By afternoon, a cold front will move into the region, kicking off a few more thunderstorms.
- There is a low-end chance for isolated severe storms for coastal and eastern counties, mainly south of the state line, where few storms can cause locally strong wind gusts, hail, and an outside chance for a brief tornado.
- Areas of concern: Panhandle, most of Big Bend, southwest Georgia (especially west of I-75)
- Severe storm coverage: Scattered to numerous
- Hazards: Heavy rain, flash flooding, damaging straight-line wind gusts, a tornado or two
- First Alert Weather Day: recommended (numerous and successive severe thunderstorm warnings likely, scattered pockets of gust-related damage possible, few tornado warnings possible, 2"+ rainfall from Hwy 319 west; some popular community activities/events scheduled before and during storm arrival window)
Widespread rainfall totals are generally forecast in the 2 to 5-inch range, with higher amounts possible. Amounts over 4 inches could create riverine flood issues. Flash flooding will also be a concern particularly Saturday.
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