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FIRST ALERT WEATHER DAY: Severe storms expected Monday afternoon, evening

Today's primary threats are damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
Posted at 9:43 AM, Feb 15, 2021
and last updated 2021-02-15 20:12:10-05

(WTXL) — The WTXL First Alert Weather Team has declared today a First Alert Weather Day due to the upcoming severe weather threat Monday afternoon-evening.

A cold front approaching from the west will bring the potential for damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes through late tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced (3 out of 5) risk for most of the coverage area.

While Monday morning starts off dry and cloudy, we're awaiting a warm front to lift from the south to help warm temperatures up a bit.

After lunchtime, winds will turn breezy and temperatures will climb with increasing humidity thanks to increasing lower level moisture from the Gulf. This will help provide instability for our cold front to tap into later this afternoon and evening to produce severe storms.

Monday's cold front will approach from the west around mid-afternoon and move east through the sunset hours into the night. The primary threats are a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts.

Here's a rough storm time arrival graphic to give you a good idea of when to expect the severe threat to show up where you live. Rainfall totals can add up to around 1" through the night, but since the front will be moving quickly we aren't expecting a widespread flood threat.

A tornado watch has been issued for the entire area.

Once the front clears we'll be left with overnight clearing and a cool start tomorrow as lows dip into the lower 40's. While we've got mostly dry weather on tap for tomorrow and early Wednesday, stronger storms will likely return to the forecast again Thursday with another cold front in the forecast.

Wednesday through Thursday, we expect a couple of rounds of rain that could coincide with cresting river levels - possibly aggravating flooding conditions.

There's also a decent signal that severe weather will be possible again on Thursday. Once again, all types of severe weather will be possible and could be more scattered rather than isolated. We'll have more specific information on Thursday's storm threat as we get closer.

As always, be sure to follow the ABC 27 First Alert Weather Team on Facebook and Twitter. Be sure to download the Storm Shield App to get watches and warnings delivered straight to your phone to stay updated on your forecast through the week. Get the app today: iPhone/iPad | Android.