PALM BEACH COUNTY, Fla. — Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election for a Florida state House seat on Tuesday, flipping a district that is home to President Donald Trump’s estate, Mar-a-Lago.
The Republican president endorsed Gregory’s rival, Jon Maples. In a social media post Monday, he urged voters to turn out, saying Maples was endorsed “by so many of my Palm Beach County friends.”
Republican Mike Caruso resigned from the seat to become Palm Beach County’s clerk. He won the district by 19 percentage points in 2024.
Democrats celebrated the victory Tuesday night.
“Mar-a-Lago just flipped red to blue, which should have Republicans sweating the midterms,” said Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee. She said it is the 29th district that Democrats have flipped form GOP control since Trump took office. “Gas prices are spiking, grocery costs are up, and families can’t get by — it’s clear voters at the polls are fed up with Republicans,” Williams said.
With almost all votes counted, Gregory led by 2.4 percentage points, or 797 votes.
The state House race includes President Trump's South Florida resort and could be a sign of political momentum in Florida.
What would normally be a low-profile legislative contest turned into a high-stakes political showdown, drawing heavy spending and outside attention.
WATCH: Florida House race in Mar-a-Lago district could signal midterm trends
Republicans said they felt confident heading into Election Day, pointing to the party’s well-built turnout operation. Florida GOP Chair Evan Power said the party’s infrastructure was designed for races like this.
“Our voters are going to turn out, and we're going to win elections because of that,” Power said. “The RPOF and the Florida GOP has built infrastructure that's there for every election, and we're having success because of that.”
Republicans hold a massive statewide voter registration advantage, around 1.5 million voters. The district itself favored Trump by about nine points in 2024.
But Democrats pointed to recent off-year elections in 2025, where Democratic candidates overperformed expectations, and argued frustration over rising costs could resonate with voters in District 87.
Gregory, a small business owner, says affordability issues dominate conversations with voters.
“I think 30 years of Republican rule has not resulted in solutions,” she said.
“You know, the last thing that Floridians that were already struggling needed was $4 gas,” said the Democrat. “So, they are just not being served, and they are saying that every single day to me.”
Political observers say that contrast — between Republican structural advantages and Democratic hopes for momentum — led to national attention in this race.
Dr. Susan MacManus, a USF professor emerita said, “If there’s going to be a seat that’s flipped in Florida, it will be this one."
A Democratic win won't shift the balance of power in the state, where Republicans maintain a significant advantage. Instead, the impact will be more symbolic.
“It would be a monumental infusion of energy and momentum for Democrats in Florida,” she said, “for races up and down the ballot.”
Gregory won’t have long to celebrate. She will quickly have to launch a reelection campaign ahead of November, and could soon weigh in on major issues in Tallahassee. That includes the state budget, redistricting and potential property tax cuts expected in upcoming special sessions.
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