(WTXL) - Storm experts are already looking ahead to the 2019 Hurricane Season.
Even though it’s early and things can change, the December report is giving some hope that the atmosphere will take a break on us, suggesting a lower probability of the heavy storm activity that characterized the past three years.
Storm experts at Colorado State University study global climate patterns that can influence hurricanes. They found a 65 percent chance that a near to below average season will unfold.
WTXL’s Meteorologist Valerie Mills spoke to Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut, who is the President of Weather Tiger, a Tallahassee based forecasting company.
He explained how sea surface temperatures and the possibility of an El Niño can affect the 2019 season.
"It tends to favor cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, which is less able to provide fuel to hurricanes as they move over the ocean waters in the summer and the fall," said Truchelut. "It also favors stronger than average wind shear, which is the changing of the direction and strength of winds with height in the atmosphere. It's better for hurricanes to have less wind shear."
Meteorologist Truchelut said El Niño is typically associated with fewer Atlantic hurricanes because the combination of cooler ocean waters and increased wind shear affect a hurricanes ability to strengthen.
An average Atlantic season brings 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes into the Atlantic.
The first formal forecast will be released on April 4.
