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Proposed Florida congressional map targets Democratic seats, but could bring GOP risks

Proposed Florida congressional map targets Democratic seats, but could bring GOP risks
Redistricting special session, Ron DeSantis
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Gov. Ron DeSantis is putting his proposed Florida congressional map before state lawmakers, a plan that could give Republicans as many as four additional seats on paper heading into the midterms. It’s a redraw that Democrats and voting rights groups are already calling illegal. 

The proposal comes as lawmakers prepare for a special session this week to consider the new districts and as national pressure builds over control of the U.S. House.

The map, sent to Fox News before it was shared publicly with Floridians or the state lawmakers expected to vote on it, appears designed to limit Democratic support in several districts now represented by U.S. Reps. Darren Soto, Kathy Castor, Lois Frankel, Jared Moskowitz, and Debbie Wasserman Schultz.

Political consultant Michael Worley, with MDW Communications, said the new lines could change the makeup of those districts, but not without uncertainty.

“There are much more compact Democratic districts now,” Worley said. “But there's a lot of NPA voters that are on the table in these newly drawn districts that are going to decide this election.”

WATCH: Proposed Florida congressional map targets Democratic seats, but could bring GOP risks

Proposed Florida congressional map targets Democratic seats, but could bring GOP risks

DeSantis’ office argues the redraw is needed because Florida was shortchanged in the census and because current redistricting rules require race-based map drawing. Earlier this month, the governor said the state’s rapid growth has left its districts out of balance.

“Florida has experienced 10 years' worth of population growth in like three,” DeSantis said. “And so if you look, our districts are not fairly apportioned because of that.”

In a transmittal letter, EOG General Counsel David Axelman said the proposed map “does not take race into consideration at all.” The letter also challenges key parts of Florida’s Fair Districts amendment, which protects against partisan map drawing and the diminishment of racial voting blocs.

“The use of race in redistricting should never happen,” wrote Axelman. “Any decision taken because of race triggers (and should trigger) the strictest of federal constitutional scrutiny.”

Democrats sharply rejected that argument. Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried said the map was drawn for President Donald Trump, not Florida voters.

“Ron DeSantis didn’t draw this map for Florida, he drew them for the only Floridian he cares about: Donald Trump,” Fried said. “He would willfully break the law and screw over the people of Florida for a morsel of relevance.”

Voting rights groups have also protested outside the state capitol and warned the redraw would undermine the Florida Constitution. Brad Ashwell, Florida state director for All Voting is Local Action, called the move “unnecessary, illegal, and a power grab.”

“It is clear that the end goal in this state is to redraw maps in order to give one party an advantage over another, essentially putting partisan politics over the voters,” Ashwell said. “…For once, Florida should stand by its voters and election officials and shut this undemocratic move down. No new maps!”

U.S. House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries also threatened legal action, calling the proposal the “DeSantis Dummymander.”

“Ron DeSantis’s gerrymander is blatantly illegal and political malpractice,” Jeffries said. “Floridians overwhelmingly passed a Fair Districts Amendment in 2010, explicitly barring partisan gerrymandering.”

Jeffries said Democrats would fight the proposal in court.

Political experts continue to warn that Republican gains could come with tradeoffs. Dividing up purple areas, including parts of Tampa Bay, could push Democratic and no-party-affiliation voters into surrounding GOP-held districts, potentially making some of those races more competitive in a midterm environment.

Dr. Susan MacManus, professor emerita at the University of South Florida, said that concern is already causing tension inside Republican ranks.

“They're worried that they might lose some places which would become more competitive,” MacManus said. “There's real problem right now within the Republican ranks about whether this is a great idea or not.”

Polling also suggests the idea is unpopular with voters. An Emerson College survey found 56% of likely Florida voters opposed a mid-decade redraw, including two-thirds of independents.

Lawmakers are expected to begin reviewing the map in committee on Tuesday, with both chambers taking it up on the floor by Wednesday.

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