Forecast: Florida is still growing but faces future slowdown

Posted at 11:27 AM, Jul 27, 2022

ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) — Florida grew slightly over a previous forecast in the first quarter of this year, but slowing population growth due to deaths outpacing births is still in the Sunshine State’s future over the next decade, according to estimates released last week.

The estimates released by the state Demographic Estimating Conference showed that Florida's population growth appears to have peaked last year with a 1.6% growth rate.

Florida's population in 2022 will stand at more than 22 million residents, trailing only California and Texas in size. The April 1 estimate was 3,795 residents higher than a forecast last December, reflecting an increase in migration.

While Florida will continue to grow over the next decade and beyond, with its population reaching just short of 25 million residents by 2032, it's pace of growth will slow down to 0.8% in 10 years and 0.6% by 2039, according to the estimates.

The slowdown will be driven primarily by deaths outpacing births in the next decade and a half, but fewer people moving to Florida also will play a role, according to the estimates.

Net migration to Florida appears to have peaked at more than 404,000 people in 2020, and it's expected to be only about two-thirds of that by 2032 — or more than 262,000 people.