TALLAHASSEE, Fl. (WTXL) -- Scientists at Florida State University and the Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS), say that this year's El Niño event will increase the likelihood of heavy rain this upcoming winter.
According to the Florida Climate Center, heavy rain events, in which two inches or more of rain fall, are nearly twice as likely to occur in Florida during the upcoming Winter months when there is a strong El Niño in place. The impacts range from positive to negative as more rain may be needed in some areas, but with heavy rain events comes the risk of severe weather and flood potential.
An El Niño event occurs when equatorial waters in the east to central Pacific Ocean are warmer than average. This warming can help feed the subtropical jet stream over the southeastern U.S. That can bring stronger Winter storm systems to our doorstep. El Niños happen periodically. Occasionally, a strong El Niño can occur, like the one we are currently experiencing.
"This is looking like one of the strongest El Niños on record", said David Zierden, State Climatologist at FSU and COAPS. "But the strength of El Niño does not always translate to even more rainfall. What it does mean is that the forecast of above normal rainfall is much more confident than during a moderate or weak El Niño event."
This means more rainy concerns for areas that have already received a lot of rainfall this summer, like Tampa. Plus, as we see late Fall and Winter storms roll through, they carry the risk for strong to severe weather.
There are some positives that the rain events can bring to the state, however.
"Further north, we're starting to see moderate drought pop up along north Florida, southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia", explained Zierden. "That's really impacting agriculture right now. So more rainfall in the near future would certainly be a benefit to them."
There is no need to be alarmed. Just be aware of the greater chance to see some heavy rain events occur this Winter. And depending on where you live, that can be a helpful tool or a nuisance.